Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3fa…ef74 world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$15
other 19% $0
politics 16% −$13
sports 9% +$2
economics 6% −$1
finance 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -0.4% -9.9% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 71 -2.0% -11.3% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 74 -3.0% -12.3% 27% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 1% -10.4%
10% -20.7% 1% -19.0%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage491d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $23 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $82 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $78 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $53 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $46 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 29 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $29 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $61 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $40 −$10 -24%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $38 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $27 −$1 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $45 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $13 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $13 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $28 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $19 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $26 40h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $23 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $23 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.38 · official $28.32 · 324 history records