Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa3fa…da93 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,954 (-29%) realized −$2,045 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$2,649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,292
other 25% −$612
world 2% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% -23.0%
≤30d 14 -82.0% -83.8% 7% 7% -80.5%
≤90d 29 -65.5% -68.8% 14% 14% -46.1%
all 33 -60.1% -63.9% 18% 15% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.9% 15% -42.0%
10% -67.3% 12% -47.6%
15% -70.5% 12% -52.7%
20% -73.4% 12% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$125 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized−$2,045
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage111d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $200 $338 +$138 (+69%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 32¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $57 $3 −$54 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $607 −$291 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $241 +$165 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 03 $1,370 −$1,350 -98%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Jun 02 $77 −$77 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Jun 02 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $20 −$14 -69%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 02 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $360 −$360 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $205 +$402 +196%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $607 +$376 +62%
Will Tiger Woods win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Apr 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Apr 05 $81 −$68 -84%
Will Blades Brown win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $141 −$93 -66%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tommy McMillen win by KO or TKO? Apr 05 $230 +$325 +142%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Mar 14 $500 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 14 $129 +$20 +15%
Will Kyler Murray play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27? Mar 12 $121 −$119 -99%
Will Trey Hendrickson play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27? Mar 11 $135 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 23¢ $110 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $402 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $0 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $406 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $241 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $206 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $508 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $508 15d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 29¢ $229 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $205 16d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $510 16d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $355 16d
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery BUY Menery 25¢ $102 27d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 18¢ $77 33d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Diaz 41¢ $204 33d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 19¢ $115 40d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Brady 100¢ $983 40d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 61¢ $607 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $205 42d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 67d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 67d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 67d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 29¢ $164 67d
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 71d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 71d
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 72d
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $80 72d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 73d
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.52 · official $798.52 (match) · 124 history records