Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa3fa…2987 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-27%) realized −$155 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$148
world 17% −$17
politics 4% −$20
finance 2% +$9
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 9 -67.2% -70.3% 22% 11% -84.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.3% 11% -84.5%
10% -73.2% 11% -86.0%
15% -75.8% 11% -87.4%
20% -78.1% 11% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$29 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage159d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by January 31? Feb 01 $20 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? Jan 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 2h
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $20 134d
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 134d
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 137d
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 138d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $150 144d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY No 55¢ $20 151d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 151d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 8¢ $5 151d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 49¢ $30 152d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? BUY Down 53¢ $10 152d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $20 152d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $20 158d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 158d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 158d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $20 158d
DeepSeek V4 released by January 31? BUY No 94¢ $20 159d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.98 · official $293.98 (match) · 126 history records