Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3fa…cdb2 crypto 606 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,239 (-3%) realized −$1,242 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%329W / 276L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$32
14 days−$10
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$812
sports 31% −$1,504
crypto 20% −$236
weather 16% −$364
world 1% +$3
economics 0% −$41
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.7% -15.5% 54% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 58 -9.0% -17.6% 50% 48% -20.0%
≤90d 174 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 51% -21.4%
all 605 -0.8% -10.3% 54% 42% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 42% -12.9%
10% -18.9% 33% -21.2%
15% -26.7% 26% -28.8%
20% -33.9% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1,242
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses329 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)605 / 606
History coverage238d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $29 +$13 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $55 +$9 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 +$16 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$15 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $44 +$26 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 Jun 22 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$79 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$16 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$17 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$28 +99%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 +$9 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$13 +114%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$18 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $67 −$66 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $36 +$29 +83%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $40 −$2 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 05 $22 −$22 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 05 $88 −$87 -99%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $8 +$7 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $78 −$77 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $64 −$63 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $88 +$62 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $71 +$9 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $55 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 47h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.17 · official $47.17 (match) · 2005 history records