Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3fd…255f
sports · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 56¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 88¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Toronto Tempo 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $51 −$14 -26%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $6 −$5 -81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $15 −$3 -20%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$24
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $1 2m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 99¢ $35 5m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 99¢ $30 10m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies $3 11m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies $1 24m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 10¢ $1 25m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $1 37m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $1 47m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $1 47m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $1 48m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $1 48m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $1 48m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 24¢ $1 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 24¢ $1 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 30¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 32¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 100¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 31¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 99¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 99¢ $50 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 84¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -63.1% -66.6% 12% 12% -44.1%
≤30d 9 -67.2% -70.3% 11% 11% -44.9%
≤90d 9 -67.2% -70.3% 11% 11% -44.9%
all 9 -67.2% -70.3% 11% 11% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.3% 11% -44.9%
10% -73.2% 11% -50.2%
15% -75.7% 11% -55.0%
20% -78.1% 11% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 70 history records