Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa3fd…98be sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+26%) realized +$150 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$193
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% +22.9%
≤30d 71 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% +22.9%
≤90d 71 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% +22.9%
all 71 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 48% +22.9%
10% -23.5% 48% +11.1%
15% -30.9% 46% +0.4%
20% -37.7% 41% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kessler vs. Kasatkina: Match O/U 21.5 Over 52¢ 51¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tauson vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $51 +$48 +95%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$6 -12%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $145 +$110 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 +$17 +33%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $51 +$27 +53%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $26 +$19 +75%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5) Jun 21 $4 +$3 +76%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul Jun 21 $2 +$1 +57%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $4 +$3 +65%
Navone vs. Sonego: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $4 +$2 +57%
Navone vs. Sonego: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Tiafoe Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Jun 21 $4 +$2 +40%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 21 $8 +$4 +52%
Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 21 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) Jun 20 $2 +$3 +124%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +109%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $2 +$1 +60%
Set Handicap: Duckworth (-1.5) vs Hussey (+1.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +124%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Set 1 Winner: Giron vs Broom Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $2 +$1 +57%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Sobolieva (+1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$2 +79%
Nakashima vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Set Handicap: Svajda (-1.5) vs Huesler (+1.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink Jun 20 $1 $0 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $2 +$1 +48%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $2 +$2 +88%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 20 $2 $0 -7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Set Handicap: Oliynykova (-1.5) vs Johnson (+1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tauson vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 99¢ $99 1h
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) SELL Jovic 50¢ $45 3h
Tauson vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 5h
Tauson vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 5h
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Jovic 55¢ $51 6h
Kessler vs. Kasatkina: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 6h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 56¢ $69 17h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 73¢ $67 17h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 56¢ $76 17h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 17h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 84¢ $77 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 58¢ $45 17h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 18h
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5) SELL Hanfmann 100¢ $7 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 18h
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 56¢ $4 21h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif BUY Xiyu Wang 67¢ $4 21h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 35¢ $2 22h
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul SELL Paul 100¢ $3 22h
Navone vs. Sonego: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 23h
Navone vs. Sonego: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 23h
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Tiafoe BUY Fritz 63¢ $2 23h
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul BUY Paul 63¢ $2 25h
Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 67¢ $2 27h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu BUY Darja Vidmanova 71¢ $4 27h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 63¢ $4 27h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $4 30h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 65¢ $8 35h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 44¢ $2 38h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.04 · official $49.04 (match) · 114 history records