Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A3 0xa3fd…d854 economics 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$41 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$403per market

Trades / day7.3pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-18.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	0%	0%	-19.8%
≤30d	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	0%	0%	-19.8%
≤90d	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	0%	0%	-19.8%
all	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	0%	0%	-19.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.9%	0%	-19.8%
10%	-26.7%	0%	-27.4%
15%	-33.8%	0%	-34.4%
20%	-40.3%	0%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$46 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$41

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$403

Trades / day7.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	Jun 19	$500	−$106	-21%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	Jun 18	$309	−$13	-4%
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Jun 18	$471	−$32	-7%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Jun 18	$331	−$31	-9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	SELL No	56¢	$393	1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY No	70¢	$500	1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	SELL No	20¢	$296	12h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	BUY No	20¢	$309	12h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	45¢	$439	23h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY No	47¢	$471	23h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	SELL No	17¢	$301	28h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY No	18¢	$331	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records