Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa400…8bc8 weather 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate97%63W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$5
crypto 26% +$2
tech 9% +$2
other 7% $0
politics 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 60 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 10% -9.7%
all 65 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses63 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage118d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? Jun 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 7? May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C or below on May 7? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 2°C or below on May 7? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on May 7? May 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 7? May 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 7? May 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 18? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 19? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on April 19? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 18? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on April May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on April 19? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on April 19? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 18? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 19? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 19? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 18? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on April May 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 13? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 13? Apr 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 13? Apr 18 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? Apr 18 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 18 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13? Apr 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 Apr 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 13 Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 13 Apr 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 13? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 13? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 13? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 13? Apr 18 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -99%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 40d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 2°C or below on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $38 47d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $55 47d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $22 47d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $66 47d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $49 47d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C or below on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $35 47d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on April BUY No 100¢ $21 67d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $23 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on April BUY No 100¢ $34 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $21 67d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $23 67d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? BUY No 97¢ $8 72d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 13? BUY No 83¢ $6 72d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 13? BUY No 94¢ $11 72d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 13? BUY No 99¢ $11 72d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 13 BUY No 96¢ $11 72d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 13? BUY No 93¢ $11 72d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 13? BUY No 99¢ $11 72d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 13? BUY No 93¢ $11 72d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 72d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 13? BUY No 89¢ $11 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.54 · official $55.54 (match) · 129 history records