Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa406…3980 politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1
politics 14% $0
sports 9% −$6
other 7% $0
tech 6% $0
weather 3% −$1
finance 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 0% -9.5%
all 34 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -10.6%
10% -22.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage471d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Holger Rune win Wimbledon 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $7 $0 +3%
Roaring Kitty shows GameStop holdings by Friday? Apr 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 06 $15 −$1 -6%
St. Louis vs. Dayton Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
George Washington vs. Fordham Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 04 $14 $0 +1%
Creighton vs. Seton Hall Mar 04 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $11 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $11 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $34 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $42 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $31 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $15 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $46 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.01 · official $42.01 (match) · 88 history records