Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa407…3e06 crypto 525 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,175 (-25%) realized −$10,169 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%198W / 326L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$10,812
other 0% −$31
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.9% +13.0% 67% 67% +59.7%
≤30d 8 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% +16.0%
≤90d 389 -19.4% -27.0% 40% 36% -28.1%
all 524 -21.8% -29.3% 38% 34% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 34% -34.1%
10% -36.0% 31% -40.4%
15% -42.2% 26% -46.2%
20% -47.9% 21% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$64 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$10,169
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses198 / 326
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)524 / 525
History coverage112d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$81 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$18 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $38 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 17 $96 −$90 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 17 $28 +$27 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 17 $57 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $31 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 17 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 17 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 16 $41 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $36 +$42 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $176 −$158 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 16 $24 −$18 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $55 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.05 · official $94.05 (match) · 1627 history records