Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa40d…ea7a other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$10,416 (+37%) realized +$12,799 · open −$2,383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +109% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%87W / 65L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$5,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,539
crypto 8% −$487
sports 7% −$21,515
politics 1% +$20
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+89.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +128.5% +106.7% 50% 43% -27.0%
≤30d 133 +108.6% +88.8% 58% 47% -18.2%
≤90d 152 +108.9% +89.0% 57% 47% -58.3%
all 152 +108.9% +89.0% 57% 47% -58.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +89.0% 47% -58.3%
10% ← realistic here +70.9% 33% -62.3%
15% +54.4% 28% -65.9%
20% +39.2% 22% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +109% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +196% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$477 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$5,663
Realized+$12,799
Unrealized−$2,383
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses87 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions31
Markets (closed)152 / 120
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$238
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $4,473 $2,901 −$1,572 (-35%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,109 $1,028 −$81 (-7%)
Will Manuel Neuer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $460 $471 +$11 (+2%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $757 $381 −$376 (-50%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $277 $278 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+4%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 9¢ $306 $86 −$220 (-72%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $78 $75 −$2 (-3%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-5%)
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 62¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+6%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $76 $36 −$40 (-53%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $85 $34 −$51 (-60%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $22 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $38 $22 −$15 (-41%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+32%)
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 10¢ $67 $9 −$58 (-87%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-24%)
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will a player representing Canada be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Jun 27 $29 +$58 +200%
Will Anthony Gordon have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Ch Jun 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 27 $1 −$2 -236%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win UEFA Group B for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $0 $0 +180%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $328 −$381 -116%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 27 $1,483 −$385 -26%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 27 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Young Boys win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 27 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Desire Doue win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $47 −$43 -92%
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 27 $4 −$10 -248%
Will Slovenia win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 27 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Poland win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 27 $0 +$49 +54499%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Open Championship? Jun 27 $1 −$3 -272%
Will Switzerland win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jun 27 $1 $0 -44%
Will Japan win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $8 −$10 -128%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rennes win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Jun 27 $97 −$93 -96%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 27 $1,192 −$1,372 -115%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World C Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Georgia win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 27 $0 $0 +214%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 22? Jun 27 $42 +$237 +564%
Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 27 $401 −$469 -117%
Will Nice finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? Jun 27 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $559 −$618 -111%
Will VfB Stuttgart beat Bayern Munich? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Open Championship? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 27 $552 −$456 -83%
Will Mainz win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 27 $58 +$780 +1345%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $71 −$242 -343%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Germany win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bayern München score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions Lea Jun 27 $1 +$9 +1720%
Will Marius Mouandilmadji score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Eur Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pedro Neto be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roma win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Jun 27 $0 $0 +4032%
Will Germany win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jun 27 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $276 −$576 -209%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $116 −$94 -81%
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $47 −$39 -84%
Will Ousmane Dembélé be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Jun 27 $1 +$3 +225%
Will Ferencváros win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 27 $1 +$44 +6507%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Jun 27 $7 −$543 -7332%
Will Lille win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 27 $13 −$18 -142%
Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 27 $0 +$4 +11891%
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 37m
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 41m
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 41m
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 41m
Will Germany be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 42m
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $159 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $795 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 2h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 4h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $26 4h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 4h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $65 4h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,663.01 · official $5,663.01 (match) · 3500 history records