Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa410…f61f sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$792 (-5%) realized −$788 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%72W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$289
14 days+$23
30 days+$894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$24
other 33% −$492
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.0% +7.7% 54% 46% +2.4%
≤30d 92 -7.0% -15.9% 50% 48% -2.1%
≤90d 158 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 44% -12.5%
all 158 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 44% -12.5%
10% -33.0% 44% -20.9%
15% -39.5% 41% -28.5%
20% -45.4% 34% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$77 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$788
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses72 / 86
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 168
History coverage73d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 66¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 16¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $205 +$98 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $405 +$247 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $399 −$398 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$25 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $299 +$251 +84%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$112 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$27 +107%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $60 +$63 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $68 +$72 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$56 +550%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $52 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$63 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $143 +$101 +70%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $204 −$201 -98%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to Scor May 31 $184 −$181 -98%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score May 31 $435 +$305 +70%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score May 31 $649 +$493 +76%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 2.5 May 31 $208 +$227 +109%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $446 +$203 +46%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Both Teams to Score May 31 $246 +$200 +81%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score May 31 $150 +$97 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $528 −$518 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 May 30 $165 −$163 -99%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $152 +$114 +75%
AIK vs. IK Sirius: Both Teams to Score May 30 $322 −$318 -99%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $202 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $303 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $205 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $28 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 15¢ $21 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $53 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 61¢ $405 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $399 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $198 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $314 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $53 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $53 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 11¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY $50 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $30 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $123 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.64 · official $447.64 · 246 history records