Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa412…97c6
crypto · 408 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,495 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,351 · open −$144
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$420
Realized−$1,351
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses177 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage15d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day110.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 407 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$786
14 days−$947
30 days−$1,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 50¢ 98¢ $150 $292 +$142 (+95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 50¢ 52¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 50¢ 48¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 50¢ 2¢ $150 $8 −$142 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $210 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $210 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $270 −$22 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $420 −$42 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $360 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $270 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $360 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$29 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $360 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $300 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $420 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $420 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $420 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $360 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $360 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $330 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $360 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $420 −$15 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $420 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $360 −$24 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $540 −$36 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $480 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $480 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $420 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $390 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $390 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $360 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $420 −$38 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $480 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $360 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $360 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $360 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $360 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $360 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $13 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $13 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 1% -9.7%
≤30d 407 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 407 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 1% -9.8%
all 407 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.00 · official $420.00 (match) · 3500 history records