Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa415…6fb9 sports 1399 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,182 (+3%) realized +$2,273 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%721W / 643L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Fees−$1,072est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$166
other 7% −$408
world 3% −$127
politics 2% −$69
tech 0% −$32
culture 0% +$50
finance 0% −$72
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 43% -31.7%
≤30d 1080 -19.0% -26.7% 44% 42% -24.2%
≤90d 1364 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 50% -10.0%
all 1364 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 50% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 45% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 39% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 31% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized+$2,273
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses721 / 643
Est. fees paid−$1,072
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1364 / 1399
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 81¢ 84¢ $89 $92 +$3 (+3%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 74¢ 76¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 64¢ $46 $59 +$12 (+26%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 66¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 66¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60¢ 53¢ $50 $45 −$6 (-12%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 29¢ 34¢ $37 $43 +$6 (+16%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Katarina Kuzmova 53¢ 76¢ $25 $37 +$11 (+44%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 34¢ 100¢ $12 $34 +$22 (+193%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Yastremska 50¢ 50¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 53¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 83¢ 80¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Boisson 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 37¢ 40¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 30¢ $57 $21 −$36 (-63%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 263 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 16 $72 −$4 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $96 −$42 -44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 16 $45 −$34 -76%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Moise Kouame vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 16 $58 −$26 -45%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 16 $93 +$18 +20%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 16 $98 +$16 +16%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $104 −$81 -78%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $221 +$52 +23%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $145 −$90 -62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $140 −$64 -46%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Jun 16 $179 −$36 -20%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 16 $96 −$75 -78%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 77¢ $16 59m
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Viktoria Morvayova 48¢ $5 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Angelina Voloshchuk 24¢ $10 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 53¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 45¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 52¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 34¢ $6 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 34¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Francesca Pace 41¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 34¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $10 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 54¢ $19 1h
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Boisson 51¢ $25 1h
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $32 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 45¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $16 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 73¢ $46 10h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 54¢ $30 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 74¢ $48 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $194 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $90 12h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Bu 50¢ $11 12h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Bu 50¢ $8 13h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $4 14h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $8 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $11 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,107.84 · official $1,111.30 (match) · 3500 history records