Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa416…63f4 sports 384 markets active 6h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,232 (-3%) realized −$1,228 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%197W / 182L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$383
7 days+$649
14 days+$1,118
30 days+$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,526
other 6% +$163
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.1% -3.1% 77% 49% -1.2%
≤30d 144 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 52% -4.3%
≤90d 355 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 43% -13.5%
all 379 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -13.1%
10% -21.4% 32% -21.5%
15% -29.0% 26% -29.0%
20% -35.9% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$55 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,353
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses197 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions5
Markets (closed)379 / 384
History coverage149d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $500 $511 +$11 (+2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 52¢ 59¢ $156 $177 +$21 (+13%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$23 +12%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$19 +10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $514 +$9 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $601 +$24 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $301 +$56 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$81 +80%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $477 +$138 +29%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $302 +$73 +24%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $175 +$13 +7%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$7 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$1 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$62 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$126 +62%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $202 +$125 +62%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,002 +$53 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$23 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$106 +172%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$21 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $51 +$42 +83%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $71 +$34 +49%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $81 +$95 +116%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $18 −$18 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$9 +17%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$33 +65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$36 +70%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $201 +$34 +17%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$21 +42%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$55 +108%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$5 +17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $502 +$66 +13%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$3 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 89¢ $201 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $625 8h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $514 8h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $201 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $601 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 13h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 88¢ $201 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $301 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $301 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 93¢ $175 23h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 80¢ $302 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $477 23h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 93¢ $100 25h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $175 29h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Top Esports 49¢ $103 29h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 61¢ $101 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 64¢ $101 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 47¢ $102 30h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $130 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $101 31h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $213 31h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 55¢ $13 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 55¢ $75 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $152 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $102 33h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $201 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $38 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,352.85 · official $1,352.85 (match) · 795 history records