Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa422…d210 sports 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$651 (-4%) realized −$672 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%184W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$611
14 days−$355
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$44
other 19% −$683
crypto 1% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +23.2% +11.5% 55% 55% -28.1%
≤30d 164 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 373 +1.3% -8.4% 49% 49% -12.6%
all 373 +1.3% -8.4% 49% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 49% -12.6%
10% -17.1% 49% -21.0%
15% -25.1% 49% -28.6%
20% -32.5% 46% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$40 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized−$672
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses184 / 189
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions5
Markets (closed)373 / 385
History coverage69d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $152 +$12 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $79 +$4 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 80¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+49%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $51 +$41 +82%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $66 +$35 +53%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $101 −$13 -13%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$28 +55%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$40 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $61 +$33 +55%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $76 −$75 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$31 +101%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$45 +89%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 +$23 +89%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $61 −$60 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,069 −$974 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$29 +116%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$27 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$6 -24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $26 +$55 +216%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 +$58 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +56%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 96¢ $92 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $51 9h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $66 9h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 46¢ $89 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $25 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $46 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $20 21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 21h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $101 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $51 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 55¢ $51 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $92 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 63¢ $25 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 27h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $5 44h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $51 44h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $5 47h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $25 47h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 47h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $41 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 49¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $76 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.20 · official $431.20 (match) · 657 history records