Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A4 0xa422…2b56 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,580 (+80%) realized +$4,643 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,948
7 days+$5,766
14 days+$5,766
30 days+$5,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$688
sports 40% +$5,851
crypto 4% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +64.3% +48.7% 39% 39% +220.1%
≤30d 28 +34.4% +21.6% 32% 32% +107.1%
≤90d 28 +34.4% +21.6% 32% 32% +107.1%
all 28 +34.4% +21.6% 32% 32% +107.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.6% 32% +107.1%
10% +10.0% 32% +87.3%
15% -0.6% 32% +69.2%
20% -10.4% 29% +52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +129% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +129% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +111% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$747 vs −$84 · ×8.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,575
Realized+$4,643
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions16
Markets (closed)28 / 44
History coverage24d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $156 −$44 (-22%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 20¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-45%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 12¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,209 +$5,725 +473%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 −$13 -6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$104 +340%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$7 -20%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$200 +649%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Harry Maguire be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq May 29 $11 −$9 -85%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 29 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 +$181 +89%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 +$255 +249%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 −$124 -61%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $202 −$151 -75%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,934 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $189 39h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $184 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 43h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $135 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $29 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 59¢ $68 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $71 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $61 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,574.71 · official $1,574.73 (match) · 91 history records