Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa423…634b crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$231 (+5%) realized +$232 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$20
other 17% +$80
politics 5% +$185
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% +40.4%
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% +40.4%
≤90d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% +40.4%
all 19 +10.0% -0.5% 84% 37% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 37% -5.3%
10% -10.0% 21% -14.4%
15% -18.7% 21% -22.6%
20% -26.7% 21% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$109 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage592d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $460 +$33 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 08 $0 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $409 +$51 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 30? Jan 05 $388 +$22 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 17? Dec 27 $382 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $375 +$7 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Dec 14 $369 +$6 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 20-26? Oct 29 $35 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 26 $386 −$17 -4%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? Oct 01 $340 +$46 +14%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Mar 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 08 $535 +$45 +8%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 05 $430 +$15 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $250 +$185 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 9? BUY No 93¢ $460 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? BUY No 89¢ $409 163d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? BUY No 90¢ $0 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $388 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $382 184d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $375 187d
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? BUY No 98¢ $369 232d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $35 235d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $369 235d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $386 260d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? BUY No 88¢ $217 308d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? BUY No 88¢ $109 308d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? BUY No 88¢ $4 309d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? BUY No 88¢ $9 309d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? BUY Yes 84¢ $294 528d
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 557d
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 561d
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? BUY Yes 92¢ $460 561d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? BUY No 97¢ $22 564d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? BUY No 97¢ $407 564d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 60¢ $60 579d
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $23 584d
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $71 584d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 57¢ $250 591d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.38 · official $79.38 (match) · 46 history records