Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa424…043c
world · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage448d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 +$2 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 +$1 +25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $61 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jul 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +3%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$4
other 26% −$2
politics 10% $0
crypto 9% −$1
tech 7% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $54 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $52 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $30 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $0 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $9 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $19 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $2 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $0 42h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $19 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $27 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $27 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 15 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 15 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 7% -8.5%
all 40 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -23.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records