Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa425…1d81 other 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$873 (-1%) realized −$954 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate26%76W / 222L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days−$684
14 days−$977
30 days−$984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$77
other 12% −$356
politics 4% −$506
tech 3% −$6
world 2% +$18
sports 1% −$35
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -53.4% -57.8% 4% 4% -40.8%
≤30d 233 -43.6% -49.0% 10% 8% -28.7%
≤90d 235 -43.2% -48.6% 11% 8% -24.6%
all 298 -34.1% -40.4% 26% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 6% -10.4%
10% -46.1% 6% -18.9%
15% -51.3% 5% -26.8%
20% -56.1% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$954
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses76 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)298 / 327
History coverage261d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $30 $95 +$65 (+212%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 66¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+64%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-23%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+525%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 22 $1,565 −$491 -31%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 +$47 +1469%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 +$23 +1521%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$35 +712%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL No 10¢ $491 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams t BUY 3¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.62 · official $267.65 (match) · 847 history records