Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa426…7b84 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,388 (+1%) realized +$1,528 · open +$860
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$2,348per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$4,919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$33,664
sports 5% −$1,385
crypto 5% −$2,642
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +18.2% +6.9% 47% 37% +4.0%
≤30d 66 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 41% +4.9%
≤90d 66 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 41% +4.9%
all 66 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 41% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 41% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 33% -5.1%
15% -15.3% 30% -14.3%
20% -23.6% 18% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$3,028) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,786 vs −$999 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$4,919
Realized+$1,528
Unrealized+$860
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 100
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2,348
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $3,059 $4,287 +$1,228 (+40%)
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $1,000 $632 −$368 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,006 −$12 -1%
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 24 $1,006 −$41 -4%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,004 −$20 -2%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,011 −$53 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $1,019 −$96 -9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,525 +$1,780 +117%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,007 −$380 -38%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,016 −$565 -56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,011 −$277 -27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,111 −$357 -32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,572 −$4,226 -76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 23 $2,049 −$1,601 -78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 23 $2,038 −$1,417 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 23 $1,536 −$1,041 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 23 $1,014 −$629 -62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,028 −$2,842 -56%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1,005 +$200 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,601 +$27 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $510 −$510 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 23 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $2,555 +$6,704 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 23 $1,025 +$5,227 +510%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28,861 +$1,836 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 23 $5,692 +$11,326 +199%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,541 +$2,244 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,500 +$528 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14,895 +$1,591 +11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,537 +$22 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,537 −$351 -23%
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,522 −$2,522 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $1,007 −$815 -81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,028 −$1,970 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $507 +$439 +87%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,508 +$301 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,643 +$2,024 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $513 +$2,986 +582%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $4,079 +$7,583 +186%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,021 −$1,571 -78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,743 +$543 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,019 +$2,717 +68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $718 −$136 -19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $606 +$116 +19%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,715 +$677 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$740 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,914 +$733 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 17 $2,031 −$625 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 36¢ $4,077 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $994 1h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 79¢ $965 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $984 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $958 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $924 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 63¢ $3,305 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 61¢ $627 3h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 49¢ $627 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 50¢ $1,185 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $451 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $734 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 58¢ $785 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 46¢ $754 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 24¢ $1,023 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 33¢ $3,060 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $1,525 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL 14¢ $1,346 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 4¢ $448 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A SELL 12¢ $620 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 7¢ $494 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 20¢ $385 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 36¢ $2,186 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 52¢ $1,014 11h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1,007 11h
England to score first vs. Ghana? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 59¢ $506 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 21¢ $1,536 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 18¢ $1,024 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 63¢ $1,011 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,918.71 · official $20,680.22 · 239 history records