Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa428…1fba sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%55W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$3
other 19% +$1
tech 17% +$1
crypto 9% $0
finance 6% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 55 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 55 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses55 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage9d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $100 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $100 12h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $100 27h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $100 28h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $10 39h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $29 39h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 100¢ $100 41h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $100 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $100 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 3d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $26 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $100 5d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 100¢ $100 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 115 history records