Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa429…ef32 sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+7%) realized +$403 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 60L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$314
14 days+$329
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$975
crypto 21% −$572
other 20% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -38.5% -44.3% 29% 29% -19.2%
≤30d 81 -8.8% -17.5% 37% 37% -3.1%
≤90d 96 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 38% -4.9%
all 96 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 38% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -4.9%
10% -27.7% 34% -14.0%
15% -34.7% 29% -22.3%
20% -41.1% 26% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$36 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized+$403
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 60
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)96 / 100
History coverage78d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 53¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+51%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 20¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 25¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 +$153 +150%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $61 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$28 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$231 +226%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $102 −$79 -77%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$40 -94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$54 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$72 +239%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 −$93 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 8m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 54m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 82¢ $255 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $161 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $2 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $61 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.85 · official $280.05 (match) · 221 history records