Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa429…368a
world · 86 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,787 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,402 · open −$651
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,116
Realized+$2,402
Unrealized−$651
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses45 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions53
Markets (closed)53 / 86
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2,183
Trades / day270.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 53 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$529
14 days+$2,402
30 days+$2,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $2,254 $2,291 +$37 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,673 $1,675 +$2 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $1,352 $1,277 −$75 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $962 $936 −$26 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 73¢ 69¢ $817 $782 −$35 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 81¢ $712 $739 +$28 (+4%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $724 $724 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $642 $625 −$17 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 73¢ $670 $624 −$47 (-7%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $546 $549 +$3 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 33¢ $867 $532 −$335 (-39%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 100¢ $336 $399 +$63 (+19%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $393 $396 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $390 $394 +$4 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $378 $387 +$9 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 37¢ 32¢ $448 $379 −$69 (-15%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 92¢ $250 $370 +$120 (+48%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 86¢ 87¢ $355 $360 +$5 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 24¢ $375 $355 −$19 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $344 $350 +$6 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 76¢ $286 $306 +$20 (+7%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $271 $297 +$26 (+10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 74¢ $376 $295 −$81 (-22%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 74¢ 60¢ $298 $242 −$56 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 47¢ 42¢ $236 $208 −$28 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,037 −$986 -95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $376 −$364 -97%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 12 $127 −$125 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $6,412 +$143 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6,068 +$106 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $11,201 +$303 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $380 +$4 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $420 +$6 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $501 +$3 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $157 +$2 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $241 +$4 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,401 +$36 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $186 +$2 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $773 +$88 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,005 +$487 +48%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $682 +$54 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3,132 +$87 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $344 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2,794 +$36 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,720 +$44 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 09 $2,274 +$38 +2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 08 $2,612 +$36 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $1,120 +$563 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3,198 −$1,105 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $516 −$474 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $594 −$128 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $617 −$114 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,742 −$516 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $757 +$11 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 07 $170 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 07 $242 +$4 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,707 +$23 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $930 +$12 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $968 +$17 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $322 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $4,845 +$535 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $4,623 +$630 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $916 +$178 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $176 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 04 $207 +$5 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $3,257 +$167 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $355 +$10 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 03 $154 +$6 +4%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $422 +$8 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $192 +$12 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,207 +$82 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,019 +$16 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,484 +$828 +56%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $976 +$219 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 89% +$1,850
politics 4% −$78
other 3% +$882
crypto 2% +$98
finance 2% +$492
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $240 0m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 13m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 14m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 17m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 18m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 18m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $104 24m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $133 24m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $2 27m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $4 30m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $18 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 88¢ $176 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $232 37m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $208 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $63 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $60 41m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $10 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $145 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $236 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $40 47m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $2 47m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $10 52m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $198 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $316 59m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $91 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $332 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $212 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.0% -16.8% 78% 14% -10.2%
≤30d 53 +4.7% -5.3% 85% 21% -6.8%
≤90d 53 +4.7% -5.3% 85% 21% -6.8%
all 53 +4.7% -5.3% 85% 21% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover270.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 21% -6.8%
10% -14.4% 13% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 11% -23.9%
20% -30.2% 9% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,116.04 · official $18,104.28 (match) · 3500 history records