Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A4 0xa42a…cafa crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$158 (+3%) realized +$164 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$61
14 days+$148
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$55
world 19% −$1
economics 19% −$1
tech 18% −$1
politics 6% −$6
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.9% +6.6% 40% 20% -7.6%
≤30d 12 +50.8% +36.5% 58% 33% -4.8%
≤90d 16 +38.1% +25.0% 56% 25% -4.9%
all 44 +13.9% +3.0% 45% 9% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 9% -6.7%
10% -6.8% 9% -15.7%
15% -15.8% 9% -23.8%
20% -24.1% 9% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×30.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.41 per $1 lost it wins $26.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage374d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $72 +$64 +90%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 17 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 17 $925 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $975 −$1 -0%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $32 +$40 +124%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 23 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will New England Revolution win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 28? Mar 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Jan 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 16? Jan 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6? Dec 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 6? Dec 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Nov 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 November 3-9? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14? Nov 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 28 $35 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3600 on August 29? Oct 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more? Sep 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $122K on August 20? Aug 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jul 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Jun 13 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Al-Ain win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $898 4d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $898 4d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $925 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $938 4d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $975 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $72 4d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? SELL No 100¢ $50 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $32 10d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 24¢ $15 29d
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 29d
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 29d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 34d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 58d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 58d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 58d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 58d
Will New England Revolution win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 62d
Will New England Revolution win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 83d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 83d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $38 102d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 102d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $17 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.94 · official $73.94 (match) · 112 history records