Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa42b…da2d crypto 1025 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%699W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day69.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$88
14 days−$126
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -14.4% -22.6% 58% 58% -24.9%
≤30d 1025 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 67% -12.2%
≤90d 1025 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 67% -12.2%
all 1025 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 67% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 67% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -20.6%
15% -28.3% 28% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses699 / 326
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1025 / 1025
History coverage17d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1025 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2226 history records