Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa42b…45d2 crypto 1220 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,313 (-4%) realized −$1,285 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%665W / 555L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$347
7 days−$288
14 days−$324
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$159
other 28% −$583
sports 21% −$190
world 0% +$52
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -3.7% -12.8% 44% 44% -24.2%
≤30d 110 +3.6% -6.3% 49% 49% -21.0%
≤90d 493 -13.4% -21.6% 46% 38% -28.2%
all 1220 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 49% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -12.9%
10% -19.7% 45% -21.3%
15% -27.5% 37% -28.9%
20% -34.6% 29% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$1,285
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses665 / 555
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1220 / 1220
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 62¢ $69 $56 −$12 (-18%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 37¢ $48 $36 −$12 (-26%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 46¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana (-4.5) Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
O/U 51.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Panthers vs. Stars Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sheffield United FC (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$10 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 +$10 +40%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 +$10 +29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 +$20 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$17 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$51 +994%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $69 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 33h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 33h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 34¢ $10 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 33h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 33h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $25 33h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $10 33h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 33h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $51 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $19 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 19¢ $13 3d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 34¢ $15 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 10¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.26 · official $108.26 (match) · 3500 history records