Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa42d…c970 other 76 markets active 7h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,049 (+1%) realized +$915 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%53W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,489per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$15,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$171
14 days+$471
30 days+$882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$906
politics 23% +$100
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 55 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 70 -18.5% -26.2% 76% 0% -8.7%
all 70 -18.5% -26.2% 76% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 0% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 0% -17.5%
15% -39.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -45.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×17.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×55.09 per $1 lost it wins $55.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$15,573
Realized+$915
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses53 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,489
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $8,380 $8,394 +$14 (+0%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $3,024 $3,109 +$85 (+3%)
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,588 $2,612 +$24 (+1%)
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,109 $1,114 +$5 (+0%)
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $314 $320 +$6 (+2%)
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $269 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $851 +$4 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $90 +$2 +2%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $8,508 +$87 +1%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1,256 +$8 +1%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,369 +$3 +0%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$2 +3%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $690 +$7 +1%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8,098 +$30 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,603 +$24 +2%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,116 +$3 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2,309 +$68 +3%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1,850 +$11 +1%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $930 +$3 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6,306 +$13 +0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,474 +$52 +4%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $763 +$43 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $2,021 +$5 +0%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5,734 +$28 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $367 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 07 $119 −$1 -0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $396 +$5 +1%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $543 +$6 +1%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $685 +$3 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $4,005 +$42 +1%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2,286 +$20 +1%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $1,252 +$10 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 02 $198 +$2 +1%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $3,777 +$47 +1%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $3,059 +$26 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, May 31 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $1,473 +$29 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 30 $2,963 +$12 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, May 30 $393 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 30 $5,305 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $237 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $332 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,940 +$18 +1%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $412 +$6 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $431 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $756 +$6 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $481 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,086 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $3,364 +$159 +5%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,151 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,960 7h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 7h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $154 10h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 25h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $126 30h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $81 30h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $294 30h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $197 30h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 30h
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 31h
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 31h
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,069 31h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $123 32h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 32h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 32h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 32h
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 32h
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $242 32h
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 32h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $266 33h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 35h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 35h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 35h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $127 36h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 36h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $71 36h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $164 39h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 39h
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,573.45 · official $15,573.45 (match) · 1003 history records