Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa42f…5f5a crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3484 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$149,297 (+898%) realized +$150,369 · open −$1,072
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +228% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +152% what you keep after slip
Net edge+152%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%35W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3484.0pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$108
crypto 37% −$147
other 23% −$850
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3484 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+196.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +227.7% +196.5% 21% 21% -1.1%
≤30d 165 +227.7% +196.5% 21% 21% -1.1%
≤90d 165 +227.7% +196.5% 21% 21% -1.1%
all 165 +227.7% +196.5% 21% 21% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3484.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +196.5% 21% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here +168.1% 21% -10.6%
15% +142.2% 21% -19.2%
20% +118.5% 21% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1269% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +228% · $-wt -1269% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +533% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$91 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28,121
Realized+$150,369
Unrealized−$1,072
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses35 / 130
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions208
Markets (closed)165 / 86
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3484.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 208 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $2,074 $2,242 +$168 (+8%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,499 $1,508 +$9 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $1,184 $1,340 +$156 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $956 $1,095 +$138 (+14%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $868 $863 −$5 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? No 81¢ 60¢ $1,123 $820 −$303 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $782 $795 +$13 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $698 $694 −$4 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 17¢ 46¢ $232 $638 +$407 (+175%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 82¢ 54¢ $907 $592 −$315 (-35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $475 $483 +$8 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $411 $423 +$12 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $413 $416 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $245 $402 +$157 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Down 92¢ 98¢ $356 $380 +$23 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $345 $342 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? No 72¢ 73¢ $333 $335 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $322 $330 +$7 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 18¢ 20¢ $252 $273 +$21 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? No 95¢ 99¢ $257 $268 +$11 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $276 $236 −$41 (-15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 32¢ $216 $225 +$9 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $213 $210 −$3 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $199 $208 +$9 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $194 $202 +$8 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $55 −$67 -122%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $49 +$36 +73%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $13 +$5 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 1? Jun 16 $0 −$10 -15066%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3? Jun 16 $0 −$6 -38398%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 20 Jun 16 $0 −$1 -2806%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jun 16 $0 −$61 -147761%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 5? Jun 16 $0 −$56 -169563%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 19 Jun 16 $0 +$488 +2490956%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 1? Jun 16 $0 −$116 -199308%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 17? Jun 16 $0 +$8 +27390%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Jun 16 $0 −$302 -1274813%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 20 Jun 16 $0 +$46 +90779%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 3? Jun 16 $0 −$33 -56255%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $0 −$294 -278078%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 8? Jun 16 $0 −$21 -49523%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23? Jun 16 $0 −$212 -212179%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Jun 16 $0 −$303 -373972%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Jun 16 $0 −$1,129 -684294%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Jun 16 $0 −$107 -1110667%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 20? Jun 16 $0 −$80 -712734%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on February 9? Jun 16 $0 −$18 -82728%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 19? Jun 16 $0 −$9 -39284%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 30 Jun 16 $0 −$40 -99206%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 2 Jun 16 $0 −$119 -459938%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 28 Jun 16 $0 −$23 -34951%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 3? Jun 16 $0 −$25 -633168%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 3? Jun 16 $0 −$17 -96049%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 1? Jun 16 $0 −$97 -601580%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 20? Jun 16 $0 −$6 -48188%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 2? Jun 16 $0 +$93 +50416%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 26 Jun 16 $0 −$108 -928655%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Jun 16 $0 −$11 -337074%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 2 Jun 16 $0 −$154 -547381%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 2? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -366%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $0 −$26 -62061%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 31 Jun 16 $0 +$43 +36607%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 19 Jun 16 $0 −$34 -64802%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Jun 16 $0 −$12 -104456%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 19? Jun 16 $0 −$106 -46843%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 2? Jun 16 $0 −$7 -27433%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8? Jun 16 $0 −$56 -198452%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 10? Jun 16 $0 −$45 -195316%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 2 Jun 16 $0 −$95 -760361%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 1? Jun 16 $0 +$22 +43234%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Jun 16 $0 −$43 -153896%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 10? Jun 16 $0 −$100 -167035%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on February 25 Jun 16 $0 −$92 -737914%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 63¢ $27 0m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 38¢ $2 0m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 62¢ $23 0m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $23 0m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $4 0m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 37¢ $2 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $9 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 0m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 96¢ $40 0m
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon SELL Pedro Martinez 32¢ $2 0m
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 68¢ $27 0m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $15 0m
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet SELL Maxime Janvier 17¢ $1 0m
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 20¢ $3 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $3 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $32 0m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 18¢ $3 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $2 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 0m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 17¢ $3 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $2 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $2 0m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 68¢ $6 0m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 0m
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet SELL Maxime Janvier 23¢ $2 0m
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet SELL Maxime Janvier 24¢ $1 0m
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Gabriel Diallo 19¢ $2 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,120.73 · official $28,120.80 (match) · 3500 history records