Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa42f…625d crypto 802 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,016 (+4%) realized +$2,107 · open −$91
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%597W / 193L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$142
14 days−$43
30 days−$729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$271
tech 6% −$104
politics 2% −$15
world 1% −$21
sports 1% −$20
economics 1% −$83
other 1% +$71
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.7% +3.8% 54% 50% +12.9%
≤30d 141 -70.0% -72.8% 13% 9% -20.0%
≤90d 748 -0.9% -10.3% 75% 39% -8.9%
all 790 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 38% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 22% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 15% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$2,107
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses597 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)790 / 802
History coverage92d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Fucsovics 50¢ 24¢ $89 $44 −$45 (-51%)
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 50¢ 44¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-13%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 50¢ 28¢ $57 $32 −$24 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 78¢ 74¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 76¢ 72¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Corentin Moutet vs. Marton Fucsovics: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 50¢ 44¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 77¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 75¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Moutet vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Under 50¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 78¢ 38¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 40¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $14 +$9 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$42 +437%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $29 +$32 +108%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $48 −$25 -51%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $9 −$1 -16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $40 +$13 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $44 −$37 -84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $108 +$71 +66%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $63 +$20 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$13 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +42%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 +$6 +76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $470 −$82 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $2,960 −$103 -4%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$3 +9%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $99 −$21 -22%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $577 +$9 +2%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $133 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $52 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $78 −$2 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 28 $302 −$23 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 28 $252 −$6 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 50¢ $45 48m
Moutet vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 48m
Corentin Moutet vs. Marton Fucsovics: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $24 48m
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Fucsovics 50¢ $90 48m
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 50¢ $57 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 16h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $51 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 98¢ $23 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 44¢ $11 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $25 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 18¢ $10 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $29 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $8 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $7 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $23 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $85 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $85 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.70 · official $216.71 (match) · 2000 history records