Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa42f…e76c sports 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate73%210W / 78L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$10
other 8% +$2
politics 4% +$2
world 1% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 100% 50% +0.4%
≤30d 14 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 21% -4.4%
≤90d 41 +1.1% -8.5% 98% 7% -9.1%
all 288 -2.8% -12.0% 73% 52% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 52% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 41% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 28% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses210 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions5
Markets (closed)288 / 293
History coverage560d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$4 +13%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $117 +$3 +3%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $39 $0 +1%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $48 −$33 -68%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $480 +$6 +1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $287 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $4,034 +$13 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $1,035 +$4 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $681 +$3 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $967 +$1 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $1,261 +$5 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $606 +$2 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $334 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $857 +$3 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $554 +$2 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $201 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $247 +$2 +1%
Guardians vs. Mets Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Nationals vs. Cubs Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Rival Esports (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Gr Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Marlins vs. Giants Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Patriots vs. Bills Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Vikings vs. Lions Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Mar 18 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $70 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT Playoffs Mar 17 $3 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 95¢ $40 44h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $96 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $16 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $15 2d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $79 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $40 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $40 27d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 97¢ $22 30d
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $30 31d
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $30 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $38 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $39 33d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $23 34d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $6 34d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $30 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 97¢ $10 34d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL No 31¢ $15 36d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 36d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 98¢ $15 36d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 37d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.