Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa430…c6f9 sports 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-1%) realized −$122 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%148W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$173
14 days−$313
30 days−$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$610
other 1% +$33
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.1% -46.7% 38% 38% -50.2%
≤30d 43 -26.3% -33.4% 47% 47% -26.3%
≤90d 284 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 52% -11.3%
all 284 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 52% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 52% -11.3%
10% -22.0% 51% -19.8%
15% -29.5% 43% -27.5%
20% -36.4% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$77 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses148 / 136
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 285
History coverage78d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 50¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $102 +$33 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $116 −$115 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $22 +$20 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $23 +$12 +50%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $209 −$110 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $94 +$25 +26%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$28 +137%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$39 +65%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $73 −$72 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $49 −$49 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $147 −$145 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $78 +$43 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $130 +$94 +72%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $85 +$44 +52%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $69 +$16 +23%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $28 −$28 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $140 −$138 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $202 −$200 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $101 +$50 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $202 +$76 +38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $170 +$46 +27%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $56 −$55 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $132 −$21 -16%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $51 +$27 +54%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $51 +$53 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $201 +$55 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $138 +$78 +57%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $198 +$58 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $16 −$12 -76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $111 +$27 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $147 −$146 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $26 +$57 +222%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $98 +$58 +59%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $150 +$54 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $101 +$49 +48%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $199 −$197 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $54 27m
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 22¢ $19 56m
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 64¢ $116 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Asu Almabayev 100¢ $134 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 75¢ $102 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 82¢ $44 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 79¢ $50 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $42 6d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $35 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 52¢ $22 6d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $23 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $58 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $110 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $119 12d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $48 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $94 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $94 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $99 12d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 41¢ $20 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $20 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $19 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $61 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $26 12d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 40¢ $73 19d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 68¢ $49 20d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 54¢ $72 20d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai SELL Brendan Allen 99¢ $121 20d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 51¢ $75 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 568 history records