Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa431…3d0f world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% $0
other 28% $0
world 17% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 100% +8.6%
≤30d 5 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 40% -6.4%
≤90d 5 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 40% -6.4%
all 5 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 40% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 40% -6.4%
10% -11.8% 20% -15.4%
15% -20.3% 0% -23.6%
20% -28.1% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×17.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.64 per $1 lost it wins $51.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $67 +$10 +14%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $77 +$19 +25%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $233 $0 +0%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 16 $227 $0 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $234 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 3h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $47 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 6h
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $233 7d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $233 7d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $228 7d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $227 7d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $233 7d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $234 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records