Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa436…feda world 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$37
sports 32% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 11 +10.0% -0.5% 55% 18% -8.3%
all 11 +10.0% -0.5% 55% 18% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 18% -8.3%
10% -10.0% 18% -17.1%
15% -18.7% 18% -25.1%
20% -26.7% 18% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$59 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage92d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $255 $254 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 22 $255 $0 +0%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? May 24 $115 +$10 +9%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 24 $461 +$34 +7%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? May 23 $461 $0 +0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 23 $460 +$5 +1%
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) May 20 $486 +$24 +5%
NATO dissolves before 2027? May 19 $484 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Apr 18 $19 +$22 +115%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $58 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 29 $4 +$3 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $255 12m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $255 18m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $255 1h
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $31 29d
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $29 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $5 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $5 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $57 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $56 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $54 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 29d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Sydney FC 93¢ $461 30d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $461 30d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $461 30d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $465 30d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $460 33d
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) BUY AC Monza 95¢ $486 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $52 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $432 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $484 34d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $20 65d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $21 65d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $9 66d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $10 66d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL Yes $27 67d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL Yes $31 67d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY Yes $27 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.47 · official $254.47 (match) · 37 history records