Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa437…6895 politics 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$1
other 26% +$4
world 21% +$2
sports 14% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 37 +2.7% -7.1% 24% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 3% -9.1%
10% -16.0% 3% -17.8%
15% -24.1% 3% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage278d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $29 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $4 +$5 +108%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $24 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $2 $0 -3%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $8 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 13d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 188d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL Yes 1¢ $1 258d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL Yes 1¢ $1 258d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 262d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 262d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL Yes 1¢ $0 262d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 264d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 264d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 264d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.87 · official $32.87 (match) · 135 history records