Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa438…c339
crypto · 170 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$203 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$196 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$196
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses81 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)157 / 170
History coverage15d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 13 History 157 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$487
14 days−$200
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 42¢ 31¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? No 33¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 28¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +119%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +146%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -55%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -63%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -92%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +134%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $3 +$10 +388%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $34 −$34 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$157
world 15% −$13
finance 12% −$14
weather 10% +$6
other 7% −$11
sports 6% −$13
politics 3% +$2
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 10m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 18¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 25h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 94¢ $3 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 74¢ $2 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 28h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $3 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $3 30h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -57.9% -61.9% 24% 9% -58.0%
≤30d 157 -17.2% -25.1% 52% 8% -18.4%
≤90d 157 -17.2% -25.1% 52% 8% -18.4%
all 157 -17.2% -25.1% 52% 8% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 8% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 7% -26.2%
15% -38.8% 6% -33.3%
20% -44.8% 6% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.15 · official $35.33 (match) · 631 history records