Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa438…cd88 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 19% +$4
other 14% −$1
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -1.9% -11.3% 38% 6% -9.4%
all 37 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage295d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$4 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $16 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $35 −$3 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $35 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $33 +$4 +14%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 05 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $38 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $34 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $13 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $20 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $11 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $22 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $6 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $28 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $16 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $37 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records