Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa439…6327 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$20
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$16
politics 25% −$15
sports 17% −$2
crypto 13% −$13
world 6% −$9
culture 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
finance 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 60 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 109 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 124 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 105
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage101d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $237 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $401 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $243 −$4 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $148 −$2 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $220 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $110 −$3 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $113 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $167 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 04 $56 +$5 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $56 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $53 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $56 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 9h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $56 10h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 16h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 16h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 16h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 17h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 31h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 39h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $54 39h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $55 43h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 44h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $62 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $61 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.91 · official $55.91 (match) · 502 history records