Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa43c…f22d sports 114 markets active 3h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$21 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%43W / 37L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$69
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$37
other 28% +$34
tech 3% −$4
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +28.8% +16.6% 55% 55% +13.8%
≤30d 80 +26.3% +14.3% 54% 54% +13.2%
≤90d 80 +26.3% +14.3% 54% 54% +13.2%
all 80 +26.3% +14.3% 54% 54% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 54% +13.2%
10% +3.3% 54% +2.4%
15% -6.6% 54% -7.5%
20% -15.8% 54% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses43 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)80 / 114
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 27¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 46¢ 11¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $5 +$20 +384%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$8 +262%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $5 +$16 +319%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $5 +$8 +166%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$6 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $3 +$5 +172%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +178%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $4 3h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 52¢ $5 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 39¢ $5 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 60¢ $5 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both BUY 47¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o BUY 35¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 41¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $5 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 27¢ $3 25h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $5 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Un BUY 27¢ $5 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $5 29h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Scotla BUY 33¢ $5 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 29h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 29h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 202 BUY 16¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1 BUY 29¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.45 · official $86.94 · 171 history records