Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A4 0xa43c…64ec sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$953 (+123%) realized +$947 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$194per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+23.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+104.9%
≤30d	3	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+104.9%
≤90d	3	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+104.9%
all	3	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+104.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.1%	67%	+104.9%
10%	+11.4%	67%	+85.3%
15%	+0.6%	67%	+67.4%
20%	-9.3%	33%	+51.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +126% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +126% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$496 vs −$50 · ×9.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×19.83 per $1 lost it wins $19.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized+$947

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage5d

Avg bet$194

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	26¢	$30	$36	+$6 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$595	+$942	+158%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$100	+$50	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$31	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	38¢	$496	26h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	38¢	$98	26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$100	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.43 · official $36.43 (match) · 7 history records