Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa43d…00f4 sports 186 markets active 3h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33,882 (+16%) realized +$20,189 · open +$13,693
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%81W / 82L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,109per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,280
7 days−$158
14 days+$23,813
30 days+$27,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$1,387
world 13% +$24,017
sports 9% −$1,929
tech 7% −$46
other 6% −$1,763
crypto 3% +$14,657
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 42% -9.9%
≤30d 54 +14.2% +3.3% 61% 50% +14.0%
≤90d 163 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 45% +4.5%
all 163 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 45% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 45% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 42% -5.5%
15% -29.8% 40% -14.6%
20% -36.7% 36% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$729 vs −$478 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$50,094
Realized+$20,189
Unrealized+$13,693
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses81 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions23
Markets (closed)163 / 186
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1,109
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $19,190 $22,242 +$3,053 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 95¢ $1,127 $8,546 +$7,418 (+658%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $4,180 $4,922 +$741 (+18%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $4,710 $4,917 +$208 (+4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 99¢ $112 $1,847 +$1,736 (+1554%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $1,231 $1,355 +$123 (+10%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $1,291 $1,338 +$47 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $1,520 $1,260 −$260 (-17%)
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $775 $988 +$213 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,000 $972 −$28 (-3%)
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 51¢ 87¢ $500 $853 +$353 (+71%)
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? No 48¢ 61¢ $266 $339 +$72 (+27%)
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $80 $169 +$89 (+112%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%? No 95¢ 100¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? No 66¢ 73¢ $73 $81 +$8 (+11%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 8¢ 40¢ $15 $80 +$65 (+431%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? No 40¢ 43¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-16%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $147 $8 −$139 (-95%)
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 56¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+73%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $5,389 +$518 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,606 +$4,799 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $360 −$104 -29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,050 +$1,150 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6,174 +$2,726 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5,252 −$1,894 -36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,734 −$1,093 -40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $541 +$215 +40%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $4,315 +$268 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $680 +$400 +59%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $8,084 −$7,106 -88%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $2,093 +$3,671 +175%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $1,260 +$2,218 +176%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 07 $2,007 −$1,513 -75%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 07 $3,340 +$3,165 +95%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $563 −$378 -67%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 05 $1,977 +$2,503 +127%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 05 $3,149 +$5,567 +177%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $5,218 −$1,933 -37%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $3,162 −$2,770 -88%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,548 −$1,105 -71%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $865 −$444 -51%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 02 $2,535 +$176 +7%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 02 $1,102 +$131 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,111 +$14,685 +240%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $5,589 +$898 +16%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $2,817 +$584 +21%
Will Jason Gibbs advance from the CA-27 primary election? May 31 $311 −$273 -88%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $2,025 +$1,325 +65%
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? May 28 $221 +$207 +94%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary May 28 $174 +$54 +31%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $1,219 +$18 +1%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 28 $3,843 −$3,672 -96%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $24 −$22 -89%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 26 $1,032 −$1,000 -97%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 26 $2,215 +$89 +4%
Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? May 24 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Trump say "Life" 13+ times during Coast Guard event? May 20 $34 +$116 +341%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $236 +$97 +41%
Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06? May 20 $83 +$13 +16%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $2,986 +$124 +4%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,807 +$1,693 +60%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $4,331 +$827 +19%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect May 20 $1,058 +$1,104 +104%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 20 $320 −$289 -90%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet May 20 $872 +$1,474 +169%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 20 $541 +$160 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $4,871 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $683 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $228 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $174 13h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $8,725 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $926 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2,010 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,028 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $459 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $80 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,093.81 · official $50,093.21 (match) · 1740 history records