Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa43e…aec9 crypto 1459 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$789 (+3%) realized +$789 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%776W / 685L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$768
7 days−$154
14 days+$1,228
30 days+$2,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -32.0% -38.4% 35% 35% -11.7%
≤30d 1075 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% +4.5%
≤90d 1461 -1.1% -10.6% 53% 52% +2.3%
all 1461 -1.1% -10.6% 53% 52% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 52% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 51% -7.5%
15% -26.9% 50% -16.4%
20% -34.1% 47% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$789
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses776 / 685
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1461 / 1459
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1461 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $19 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $122 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records