Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa43e…c068 crypto 1654 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$391 (+1%) realized +$391 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1614W / 40L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$45
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -1.9% -11.2% 96% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 580 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 1654 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 1654 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1614 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1654 / 1654
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1654 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records