Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa442…b5df crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,364 (+5%) realized +$2,364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate80%103W / 25L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,210
7 days+$1,716
14 days+$1,722
30 days+$1,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,736
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 54% -6.1%
≤30d 128 +2.1% -7.7% 80% 54% -6.1%
≤90d 128 +2.1% -7.7% 80% 54% -6.1%
all 128 +2.1% -7.7% 80% 54% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 54% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 33% -15.1%
15% -24.6% 16% -23.3%
20% -32.0% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$595) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$175 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$746
Realized+$2,364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses103 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage12d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $696 +$57 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $595 +$141 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $784 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $775 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $166 +$156 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $490 −$490 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $868 −$868 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $709 −$231 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $207 +$87 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $568 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $666 +$34 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $725 −$217 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $191 −$187 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $173 +$45 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $307 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $324 +$171 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $283 +$45 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $186 +$114 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $153 +$33 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$33 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $91 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $82 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $72 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$16 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $365 −$348 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $472 −$327 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $437 −$61 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$53 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $82 +$35 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $72 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $72 +$21 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $71 +$18 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $686 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $585 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $754 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $523 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $166 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.05 · official $746.05 (match) · 744 history records