Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa442…dca3 sports 1165 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,042 (-2%) realized −$4,042 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%593W / 572L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$2,850est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$63
14 days−$1,923
30 days−$2,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,987
other 0% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -11.9% -20.3% 57% 48% -7.3%
≤30d 420 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 44% -12.0%
≤90d 1165 -1.8% -11.1% 51% 42% -12.2%
all 1165 -1.8% -11.1% 51% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 42% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 32% -20.6%
15% -27.4% 24% -28.3%
20% -34.5% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$57 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses593 / 572
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$2,850
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1165 / 1165
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1165 Trades
no open positions (150 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $114 +$80 +70%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $84 +$29 +35%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $286 +$99 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $84 +$4 +4%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $222 +$60 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$64 -79%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $251 +$35 +14%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $64 −$12 -18%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $183 +$81 +44%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $149 +$35 +23%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $77 +$72 +95%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $81 −$67 -83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $85 −$84 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $86 −$1 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $81 −$71 -88%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $24 −$20 -83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $79 −$55 -70%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $312 +$20 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $77 +$38 +50%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $122 −$121 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $203 −$78 -38%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $172 +$28 +16%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $115 +$57 +49%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $88 +$28 +31%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $58 +$30 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $76 −$19 -25%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $55 −$54 -99%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $79 −$24 -31%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $43 +$35 +81%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $100 −$56 -56%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Jun 09 $80 +$19 +24%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $83 −$3 -3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $104 −$71 -68%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $138 −$54 -39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $85 +$11 +13%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $113 +$10 +9%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $76 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $297 +$144 +48%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $99 +$190 +192%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $328 −$229 -70%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $101 +$91 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $389 −$28 -7%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $294 +$56 +19%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $21 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $271 +$116 +43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $90 −$3 -4%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $181 −$85 -47%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $232 +$18 +8%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $246 −$69 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea SELL Virtus.pro 99¢ $194 57m
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $114 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 54¢ $114 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 39¢ $84 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 98¢ $384 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 98¢ $0 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 84¢ $199 16h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $87 17h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 40¢ $87 17h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 37¢ $84 17h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $282 21h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 78¢ $222 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 11¢ $17 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 100¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $81 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 82¢ $279 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 71¢ $251 23h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston SELL Anna Blinkova 40¢ $51 23h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 48¢ $64 23h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 99¢ $261 27h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 68¢ $183 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 75¢ $183 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $149 27h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 95¢ $149 27h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 48¢ $77 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves $14 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 33¢ $81 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $85 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 43¢ $85 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 42¢ $86 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records