Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa443…dc9b
sports · 518 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$72 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$98
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses258 / 257
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)515 / 518
History coverage129d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 515 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$37
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Australia 100¢ $5 $93 +$88 (+1890%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 78¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Türkiye 96¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Australia $2 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $47 −$35 -75%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $52 −$13 -25%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $48 −$35 -73%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 02 $3 +$4 +105%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $4 +$3 +90%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $3 +$3 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 09 $4 +$4 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $3 +$4 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 02 $4 +$3 +90%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 02 $7 +$9 +114%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $6 +$6 +97%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) May 01 $4 +$4 +109%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 01 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 30 $4 +$3 +83%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $3 +$5 +140%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Apr 28 $4 +$3 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 28 $4 +$3 +97%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 28 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 27 $3 +$3 +76%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Apr 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Apr 24 $3 +$4 +105%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Apr 23 $4 +$3 +86%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$108
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $2 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $2 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 78¢ $4 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $2 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $2 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 96¢ $5 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 96¢ $5 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 96¢ $5 1h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Australia $0 1h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Australia $1 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 96¢ $5 1h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Australia $0 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti $2 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $6 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $5 5h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $5 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $6 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $5 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $6 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $3 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $6 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.4% -15.3% 57% 29% -21.9%
≤30d 8 +7.5% -2.7% 62% 38% -20.5%
≤90d 293 +0.3% -9.2% 51% 51% -12.9%
all 515 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 50% -12.6%
10% -19.0% 49% -21.0%
15% -26.8% 49% -28.6%
20% -34.0% 49% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.71 · official $97.71 (match) · 1130 history records