Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa443…1826 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$157 (-27%) realized −$156 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$88
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$98
other 24% +$11
politics 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -27.9% -34.8% 33% 33% -26.5%
≤30d 47 -25.5% -32.6% 34% 34% -26.1%
≤90d 47 -25.5% -32.6% 34% 34% -26.1%
all 48 -27.0% -34.0% 33% 33% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 33% -29.3%
10% -40.3% 33% -36.0%
15% -46.1% 33% -42.2%
20% -51.3% 33% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage128d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $21 +$20 +97%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -81%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$9 -59%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 18 $4 +$8 +191%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +128%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$52 +102%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +69%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 14 $11 +$25 +220%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -71%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both T BUY 24¢ $10 23m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY 20¢ $23 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $41 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $21 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND United States vs. Australia: 2nd Hal BUY 13¢ $21 2h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No $5 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 20h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Korea Republic to BUY 15¢ $3 20h
Korea Republic to win the second half? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 41¢ $6 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic BUY 27¢ $5 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze BUY 34¢ $4 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Col BUY 32¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $18 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $32.34 · 93 history records