Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa449…9491 politics 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%26W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$3
other 27% −$1
sports 21% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
culture 4% $0
economics 4% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 79 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 181 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses26 / 155
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage166d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $216 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $42 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $33 +$1 +5%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $118 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 20d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 20d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $38 33d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $38 33d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 60d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 60d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $38 60d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $33 61d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $6 61d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 61d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 61d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 61d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 61d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $40 61d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $40 61d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 61d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 62d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 62d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 62d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 62d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 62d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 62d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $32 62d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 62d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 63d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $34 63d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $35 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $31.00 (match) · 666 history records