Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa449…6197 crypto 103 markets active 7d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%52W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.2% -38.6% 0% 0% -38.7%
≤30d 103 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤90d 103 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 50% -11.8%
all 103 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 50% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 50% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 39% -20.3%
15% -33.5% 21% -28.0%
20% -40.0% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses52 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 201 history records