Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa44c…d4dc crypto 1753 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1738W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$46
14 days−$50
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 506 -4.7% -13.8% 94% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 1370 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 1779 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -10.8%
all 1779 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 0% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1738 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1779 / 1753
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1779 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.02 · official $4.02 (match) · 3500 history records